I actually look forward to seeing #NeverTrumpers eat crow on Election Night. As you may know, I have had my moments of doubt aboard the Trump Train; and at one weak moment, I even started to leave the First Class Car for the Caboose. I can assure you, by the way, that at that time I never ventured further than the Observation Car.
Nevertheless, since Trump’s strong performance in the second debate, and since he really started to implement his scorched earth campaign against Bill and Hillary’s many transgressions, I am hopeful again. The reason is that I am convinced that the real numbers are closer than the skewed polls would suggest. I say “skewed” because the polls presume a much greater Democrat turnout in proportion to Republicans than is likely. The polls do not acknowledge Republican gains in party registration percentage in Florida and in Ohio in the last couple of years. The polls presume that minorities and millennials will turn out for the Clinton Crime Syndicate as they did for Obama when everything is suggesting otherwise. I believe that the mainstream media pollsters are making the same mistake in predicting a win for the Clinton Crime Syndicate as Dick Morris did in predicting a win for Romney in 2012. They are misreading the turnout and the enthusiasm gap because at the end of the day the Clinton Crime Syndicate is no Barrack Obama.
The good news for the Trump Train (Choo Choo) is that the inflammatory video disclosure forced Trump to change to a two prong strategy, which is the one I think will be best for his chances:
1.) Fighting fire with fire by highlighting all the scandals, sexual and otherwise, associated with the Clinton Crime Syndicate. This may be old news for people my age and older, but a good refresher course in Clinton skullduggery never hurts in depressing Democrat turnout, especially among Bernie voters and millennials who were never all that keen about the Clinton Crime Syndicate.
2.) Positioning Trump as the “outsider” versus the “insiders.” Paul Ryan’s treason (and that is what it is, when he goes out of his way to denounce Trump the day after Trump’s second debate performance, when Trump most needed a few good headlines coming out of that debate), and John McCain’s opposition, help to reaffirm Trump’s “outsider” status in a year that welcomes “outsiders.”
The election will be close both in real numbers and in the Electoral College. I always thought that it would be. What is happening now in rejuvenating the Trump base, and even more so in dragging the Clinton Crime Syndicate into the gutter where she really belongs, gives Trump a chance at victory. I predict that Trump does well in the last debate. I predict the polls tightening the last two weeks. I predict that Trump’s real support will continue to be underreported within those polls. I predict another “October Surprise” against Trump released by the DNC (New York Times and/or Washington Post, which of course are the same as the DNC), which will not be as impactful as the last one. I predict more Wikileaks disclosures cutting away at the Clinton Crime Syndicate, notwithstanding the New York Times and the Washington Post hiding the Wikileaks disclosures next to the Obituary pages. The result of all this will be a much closer election than the Establishment Press, including the WSJ, wants to acknowledge right now; and that means that the outcome likely will hinge on which base is more enthused.
I believe that there is a decent chance anyway that he will lose Utah. The reason is not that Utah is more moral than, let’s say, Mississippi or Missouri. The reason is that Utah is predominantly Mormon.
Historically, Mormonism has been very suspicious of overtly nationalist campaigns. This is because they had been attacked in their early history as “anti-American outsiders.” They are also much more prone than other conservative religious groups to take their political cues from their own denominational leadership. Normally, the Mormon leaders tip their hats toward whomever happens to be the GOP nominee. This time, notice the number of Mormons coming out against Trump: Mitt Romney, Meg Whitman, Glenn Beck, etc. This crosses ideological boundaries, since Whitman is a liberal masquerading as a Republican, Romney is a moderate outsourcer and globalist, and Beck is a conspiracy-minded kook conservative.
The point is that it is inaccurate to say that this is all or even mostly because of Trump’s boorishness. The real reason is Trump’s paleo-conservative nationalism, which Mormons historically fear as the precursor of “heretic burning.” It is also important to note that, on both sides of the aisle, Mormons have done a good job at carving out a good place for themselves within the Washington-Wall Street Axis. Their leaders are more often “insiders” than “outsiders,” which is why they will feel much more comfortable with the “business as usual” Clinton Crime Syndicate in power.
Now for another round of drinks and cigars on the Trump Train, as we tell ourselves that Dead Man’s Cove is in our rearview mirror (not that trains have rearview mirrors, of course, but I cannot think of what would be analogous). Just know that we shall be ripping into our Trump Steaks, while you Paul Ryan/Ayn Rand supporters are eating your crow on Election Night. I am confident that our steaks will be far more meaty and delicious than yours.