Prediction: Rand Paul Outperforms The Polls In Iowa

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After its disastrous polling attempt in the 2012 elections, Gallup has decided to get out of the election predicting business.  Harkening back to some of the off base predictions:   Dick Morris, “This is going to be a landslide.”  Karl Rove, “At least 279 electoral votes.”   While Gallup was off the mark with the widest margin, the vast majority of pollsters  picked Romney to win leaving Rove and Morris with egg on their face and the GOP establishment searching their souls for what went wrong.  In hindsight, perhaps promoting neocons for the past two cycles was not the best choice for a country that was weary of war and foreign interventions.

In the 2014 elections  there were a few predictions  that the GOP might pick up 53 seats but that was  with the rosiest of presuppositions.  Most polls considered the most competitive seats to be toss ups.  No one believed that this year would be a Republican avalanche.  The polling was biased towards democrats but the result was that the GOP garnered 54 total Senate Seats and picked up 13 new congressional seats in a sound shellacking of the party of such  liberal ideals  as open borders, gun control and abortion rights.   Even traditionally democrat states flipped  in North Carolina and Louisiana.   The conservative surge propelled David Brat to defeat the establishment Republican Majority leader, Eric Cantor in the primary on a shoe string budget.  This primary challenger crushing should have been a warning sign that the conservative tide was turning.  The surveys underestimated how the GOP would do in close races and polls have not made corrections for this years elections either.
polls  Prediction:  Rand Paul Outperforms the Polls in Iowa polls

Then we had the more recent Kentucky governors race with GOP candidate and Tea party favorite Matt Bevin who polls said was trailing Democrat Jack Conway by 7 points.  Never did the polling have Bevin ahead yet he won by a huge 9 point margin.  Another fail for the pollsters.

According to an article in Reason Magazine by Stephanie Slade, “pollsters try to figure out who will show up on Election day by asking respondents how likely they are to vote.  . . People it turns out , are highly unreliable at reporting their future voting behavior.  “  It’s getting harder to find the right combination of polling methods, direct calling, online polling, social media trends, that  will predict accurate outcomes.  Fewer respondents are participating and another problem is that polling companies are trying to save money and  follow the herd of other pollsters who follow more rigorous methods.   They “fudge” their numbers to trend with Gallup and other big name polling institutions.  Trends  tend to be foolish and those who follow trends often look like fools.

In Iowa for example the polls typically call older voters(50 and up) and many millenials have cell phones which are left out of the equation.  Rand Paul noted, “We think that a lot of young people are not included in polls, college students and younger people with cell phones, and we think that’s where our great strength is.”  Rand supporters tend to be the most die-hard of all the candidates and it shows in their online polling dominance.  On Facebook Rand Paul has over 2 million likes, third only to Ben Carson and Trump( many of  whose  likes came from suspicious locations in Asia).  Paul is also third in Twitter followers and Instagram according to an article on Breitbart.com.

polster  Prediction:  Rand Paul Outperforms the Polls in Iowa polster

Another problem of polling is bias.  If the pollsters can indicate lack of support  for a candidate then donations and support  typically dry up as well.  Thus biased pollsters can target a candidate for marginalization by underplaying their support.  With over 1,000 precinct captains in Iowa alone and numerous endorsements and college clubs, Rand will over achieve once again.  As you may suppose, the establishment is not going to help a candidate who wants to roll back our aggressive foreign policy, audit the Federal Reserve and cut back on their crony spending plans, but if the people have their say, they will vote for the candidate who puts Americans first, not the corrupt  Washington Machine.

Mr. Hannosh is an Army Veteran, Former School Board President, History/Biology Teacher, Real Estate Agent, Former Candidate for Congress in California's 8th district, Pat Buchanan, Ron and Rand Paul supporter and activist seeking to put Americans first, not the establishment. Mr. Hannosh is married and has a daughter who he hopes will inherit an America that loves peace, liberty and freedom.

  • David Leflar

    Yes, Rand has the ground game locked up. While the rest of the establishment candidates are busy plastering their faces all over TV (which really doesn’t have the impact it once did what with some 900 channels available to cable subscribers there is no way a candidate can hit them all), Rand has been relatively quietly running an old school campaign by simply meeting with the people and putting “boots on the ground” by overwhelming the competition with precinct workers. Believe the media if you will that his campaign is foundering but the truth is, Rand is a force to be reckoned with.

  • JB

    Great article. We’re gonna send the establishment scrambling.

  • MsFreedomWatch

    Shame on you Mr. Hannosh… for speaking the truth! (ha) I’ve been screaming this for months and no one will listen. The LAST person who will be given air time and respect is the candidate who wants to limit government, balance the budget, end Executive Orders, enforce a Constitutional foreign policy, shorten term limits, audit the fed, AND protect civil liberties. None of those is good for Big Brother!

    • Origanalist

      Let’s hope they don’t manage to keep him off the main stage. he’s doing very well in the debates.

  • It’s about delegates. Not polls.

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