Liberty Can Still Win In November: Just Don’t Vote For Donald Trump Or Hillary Clinton

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Imagine a scenario on November 8, 2016: Donald Trump receives 59 million votes; Hillary Clinton receives 57 million votes. Donald Trump gets 253 electoral college votes; Hillary Clinton receives 267 electoral college votes.  Both major parties fail to meet the electoral college’s requirement of 270 votes. The catch? The Libertarian Party’s candidate receives 11 million votes and 18 electoral college votes. The Green Party receives 3 million votes and no electoral college votes.

In this scenario, the United States Congress would vote and select the next President of the United States, essentially forcing the United States Congress to act as an essential check on the people. The top three candidates with electoral college votes will be eligible to collect any votes in the House of Representatives, as stated by the twelfth amendment.

“The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”

A Third Party Can Win

So your mom is on the fence about Trump. She hates Clinton. But she doesn’t want to vote for any third party, because they can’t win. 

Your best friend is a loyal Bernie Sanders activist in your area. He loves everything Sanders and especially wants marijuana legalized. He won’t vote for Hillary because she is as corrupt as she comes and Trump is a downright clown. He wants Bernie to run as a third party, but that likely won’t happen.

Your best friend and mom are a great generalization of so many different people out there from all 57 states and territories in the United States. The good news about this is that these people are the exact people that will help propel a change of course in American politics.

This is important to note because it means that our job of electing a third party candidate is easy. Let’s look at the map:

Screen Shot 2016-05-18 at 5.33.18 PM  Liberty Can Still Win In November: Just Don't Vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton Screen Shot 2016 05 18 at 5
Colorado, New Mexico, and New Hampshire are the easiest target for a third party.

Colorado and New Mexico are heavily favored to go to Hillary Clinton in a 2 way race between Trump and Clinton by at least a wide enough margin to make it almost a given at this point. As of this point as well, New Hampshire is also favored to vote for Hillary Clinton by ~8%.

Nationally, Donald Trump just notched ahead of Hillary Clinton by a slim margin of less than 1%. This alone is a strong indication that the popular vote might lean toward Donald Trump, but individual states might lean toward Hillary Clinton, giving Clinton a decent edge in electoral college votes and giving Trump an edge a bit wider than the 2000 election in terms of popular vote.

This is also without any indication that a third party candidate was even included in most of these polls.

The best part about this scenario is that – as of right now – all three of these states are essentially toss ups. Clinton gets the edge. But also take into consideration that Georgia and Missouri are toss ups and Trump gets the edge.

A Game Plan

Targeting Hillary Clinton detractors and disenfranchised Democratic voters in order for Hillary Clinton to lose and targeting Ted Cruz supporters and Rand Paul supporters in order for Donald Trump to loose is essentially the goal of this third party, no matter what party that ends up being.

Targeting states that a third party will have a simpler time in is also a top priority: New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire. These three present unique opportunities where a socially liberal and economically conservative message will resonate with residents better than anything Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump have to offer.

Any third party cannot win states such as Florida, Ohio, New York, California, even Virginia or New Jersey without a massive amount of money. Save for New Hampshire, a third party would be able to penetrate media markets in Colorado and New Mexico at a fraction of the cost and be more effective in actually forcing the vote to go to Congress at nearly half the price or more.

“A third party can win. We just have to be bold enough to make it happen.” 

Yes, a third party that is well organized and has the proper targeting techniques CAN win. Trump and Clinton will pour money into Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina. A smart Trump and Clinton campaign will pour money into New Mexico and New Hampshire. But the tailored message to the people that live in these states from a third party will be way more effective of getting attention that the pointless banter that Trump and Clinton will be providing.

Don’t expect the third party that targets Washington state or California or the “40% of people who are dissatisfied with Trump or Hillary” in all 50 states to win at all. They simply won’t. The Libertarian Party will mean nothing if the campaign and party improperly targets areas that have no chance of resulting in electoral college votes. It can still win 11 million votes and zero electoral college votes, just like in 1992.

Simple Math

3 states is literally all it takes to change the course of history.

3.

About 4 million total votes for every party on each state’s ballot were cast in the 2012 election. If we figure that November will keep up with the primary season, (10% above 2012’s primary ballots) about 4.4 million votes will be cast in these 3 states. All we need is 2.3 million people from these 3 states to say no to Trump and Clinton and we can take our country back. 400,000 from New Hampshire. 500,000 from New Mexico. 1.4 million from Colorado. Nothing more. Nothing less.

We might be faced with the stigma that party politics is the way of life- that it is beneficial to the political process in the United States. After this election cycle, it cannot be more evident that the two party system is the problem of the political process in the United States. Your vote matters: vote for the liberty candidate. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two furthest candidates from small, limited government based on the United States Constitution in our lifetime. They were the type of people that our founders fought against and warned us about.

Our founders wouldn’t dare vote for either two candidates. Why should you?

An aspiring filmmaker with a passion for liberty-minded politics, Charles Barr resides in Monmouth County, New Jersey and graduated Montclair State University with a double major in communication and political science. Charles has volunteered for various campaigns including Ron Paul for President in 2012, Steve Lonegan for US Senate, and Brian Goldberg for US Senate. In addition to politics, Charles was the assistant director for the feature length film, My Brother’s Girlfriend that was accepted to the 2015 New York Film Festival. He previously interned for Congressman Tom MacArthur and volunteered for Q Rim for State Assembly.

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