Let’s face it: 2016 is a year where America can embrace Liberty or completely blow it, succumbing to the progressive rhetoric that has been lacking lately from Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
It’s without a doubt that the clear Republican frontrunner is Jeb Bush- thanks in large part to the constant media bias toward his name. For one, if 2016 does boil down to Hillary Clinton versus Jeb Bush, history will yet again be made no matter the final outcome. The first woman President versus the third Bush: such a great media narrative that is sure to drive the twenty-four hour news cycle to the point where political nerds will actually have to stop watching.
Jeb Bush ultimately is rivaled closely by Scott Walker, who, as any political wonk will explain to you, is loaded up on cash. Again, his emergence was in large part due to the media coverage of a “campaign” stop in Iowa toward the beginning of the year. Weeks after and the media is still trying to make everyone who hates Jeb Bush jump on the Walker train.
Despite these two emerging Republican faces that the media has constantly thrown at us and made a really large deal about, nearly 18 other candidates lie. Most of these candidates do not have the media on their side, which makes it that much more difficult for anyone not named Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, or Scott Walker to really make a household name out of themselves (although more recently, it looks like the media is now selecting Marco Rubio as the default backup since Walker’s sizzle is waning off).
Despite these factors, the primary race for the Republican nomination remains as fractured as ever. Within the last three months of polling at RealClearPolitics, 8 candidates are essentially winning 8 different states. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush remain toward the top of the pack, picking up many various states beyond these 8.
- Ohio: John Kasich
- Iowa: Scott Walker
- New Hampshire: Jeb Bush
- New York: George Pataki
- California: Marco Rubio
- Georgia: Mike Huckabee
- Kentucky: Rand Paul
- New Jersey: Chris Christie
Just this past week, Senator Ted Cruz announced key hires in New Jersey and Tennessee, two states that traditionally do not matter in the Republican nomination process. This just goes to show that making a play for the early states might not be in everyone’s playbook.
For all of the Rand Paul fans out there, the Senator from Kentucky might actually have a shot. In 2012, as we all recall, three different winners emerged from the first three primary states. It’s not a far stretch to believe that Walker, Bush, and Huckabee all emerge victorious within the first three states (IA, NH, SC). It looks slightly better for Rand Paul come Nevada, where he recently received the news that the caucus system would stay in place.
If that win for Rand indeed happens, going into the “first” Super Tuesday (where as many as eight more states have their primaries), four candidates will have won a state. Essentially, the calendar looks to favor Jeb Bush significantly, but with other candidates such as Ted Cruz possibly focusing beyond March 1, 2016, the nomination process might have a long way to go. If Rand can pick up Kentucky in addition to Nevada, and have come in a close second or third in Iowa and New Hampshire, the delegate game that Ron Paul played may actually pay off this time around.
For the Liberty Conservatives out there, whether your first choice is Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, or even Scott Walker the odds that most of these make it relatively far into the nomination process are pretty high as of right now, especially after you consider Super PACs and different contributions. For the first time for a long time, the Republican National Convention may actually determine the winner.